In the five years to September 2026, VTI returned 12.6% a year and VT returned 11.4%, dividends reinvested. VTI holds the whole US market. VT holds the whole world’s, with the US as its largest part. Choosing between them is choosing whether to own stocks outside the US in their market proportion, or not at all.
For a representative saver about twenty years from retirement, investing in a taxable account: On known costs alone, VTI and VT come out about even here. VTI's 4.6-point lead in the plan's success rate comes from how the two funds performed over the last five years, so it holds only if those years repeat. For VT that tax figure is approximate: the model ignores the foreign tax credit and treats all of its dividend as qualified.
With only the known costs — the same market for both funds, differing by fees and dividend tax — the money lasted in 94.2% of 10,000 simulated futures with VTI and 93.8% with VT. Using each fund's own returns from October 2021 to September 2026 instead, the figures were 95.9% and 91.2%. Both funds were run against the identical sequence of market shocks.
One decision, made for you. VT holds each country in proportion to its market size, so it answers the US-versus-international question automatically and keeps answering it as markets move. Holding VTI alone is a bet that the US keeps leading.
Where the gap comes from. The fees differ slightly. Most of any gap in the second scenario comes from a five-year stretch in which US stocks beat the rest of the world, and nobody can tell you whether that continues.
VTI tracks the Morningstar US Total Market Index — it holds large, mid and small US companies across the market, weighted by size. VT tracks the FTSE Global All Cap Index — it holds companies of every size in the US and in developed and emerging markets abroad, weighted by size.
VTI charges 0.03% a year and yields 1.06%; VT charges 0.06% and yields 1.53%.
Returns and volatility are measured from monthly returns with dividends reinvested over 60 months — one sample from one market, and weak evidence for telling two broad funds apart, which is why the known-cost result is reported first. Dividends are taxed at 15% in a taxable account by default, the qualified rate most households pay; the page also shows the 0% and 20% brackets. It is the only tax modeled. A 3.8% net investment income tax can also apply to dividends once modified adjusted gross income passes $200,000 ($250,000 joint); it is not included. Retirement spending is held at 70% of income in today's dollars, and contributions exclude any employer match.
VT is more diversified. Which does better from here depends on whether US stocks keep beating the rest of the world, which no simulation can answer.
Close to it, in market proportions. Holding the two separately lets you choose your own international share and place each fund in the account where it is taxed best.