In the five years to September 2026, VOO returned 13.8% a year and VUG returned 13.9%, dividends reinvested. VUG holds large US companies its index classifies as growth stocks. VOO holds all of the S&P 500, growth and value alike. Choosing VUG is choosing to tilt toward one style.
For a representative saver about twenty years from retirement, investing in a taxable account: On known costs alone, VOO and VUG come out about even here. VOO's 3.0-point lead in the plan's success rate comes from how the two funds performed over the last five years, so it holds only if those years repeat.
With only the known costs — the same market for both funds, differing by fees and dividend tax — the money lasted in 97.1% of 10,000 simulated futures with VOO and 97.3% with VUG. Using each fund's own returns from October 2021 to September 2026 instead, the figures were 98.4% and 95.4%. Both funds were run against the identical sequence of market shocks.
A slice of the market, not a better version. VUG’s index sorts large companies into growth, core and value and keeps the growth group. That makes it more concentrated in fast-growing technology and consumer companies than VOO, and leaves out most banks, energy companies and other value stocks.
Swings and dividends. VUG has swung harder than VOO and pays a smaller dividend. Bigger swings cost more in a plan that is drawing money out; a smaller dividend costs less tax each year in a taxable account. The scenarios above weigh both.
VOO tracks the S&P 500 — it holds the 500 large US companies in the index, weighted by size. VUG tracks the Morningstar US Large Cap Growth Index — it holds large US companies that the index classifies as growth stocks.
VOO charges 0.03% a year and yields 1.06%; VUG charges 0.03% and yields 0.38%.
Returns and volatility are measured from monthly returns with dividends reinvested over 60 months — one sample from one market, and weak evidence for telling two broad funds apart, which is why the known-cost result is reported first. Dividends are taxed at 15% in a taxable account by default, the qualified rate most households pay; the page also shows the 0% and 20% brackets. It is the only tax modeled. A 3.8% net investment income tax can also apply to dividends once modified adjusted gross income passes $200,000 ($250,000 joint); it is not included. Retirement spending is held at 70% of income in today's dollars, and contributions exclude any employer match.
Only if growth companies keep beating the rest of the market, which no one can know in advance. The simulation separates the known costs from the bet on recent history.
You can, but it is a deliberate tilt toward growth companies: VOO already owns everything VUG holds.